I predict that civilizational collapse will occur, but you're right that we will survive it. The two are not mutually exclusive. This has happened many times before: consider the collapse of the Romano-Greek civilization. In western Europe it was pretty total, and yet, eventually, a new civilization arose from it. People were not wiped off the face of the earth. The signs of the collapse of what Spengler called the Faustian civilization are unmistakable: not just population collapse, but also the crisis of self-belief in the West, the almost complete erosion of spiritual direction, the faith of many in bogus scientism and quasi-religous cults like wokeism, and perhaps above all the pathological reliance on left-brain thinking of most people, particularly our dysfunctional elites. Very little good art is being produced now, and what there is, is being ignored or censored. The green 'policies' we have are unsustainable. I can't see any way that this civilization can continue in a way we'd recognise as 'ours' beyond this century. But I trust that a new one will replace it. There are some encouraging shoots already, like those you mention in your metaphor of the quagmire of mud.
" Very little good art is being produced now, and what there is, is being ignored or censored."
Ignoring is more effective than actual censorship.
It's impossible to produce a feature length movie without money and even if you get the money major chains won't distribute you. There are ways around that (online) but that just proves the point.
Anyone can write a book and self-publish but selling books without the sponsorship of a major publisher, which will entice the big influencers (an Oprah recommendation guarantees sales) is not impossible, but it's extremely difficult. The only real example of someone who broke out of the pack *and* who writes good stuff is Lisa Genova. She's my idol. She's a Ph.D. neuroscientist who hawked her book at every convention she went to (scientists go to a lot of conventions).
(Hint: if you don't know who Lisa Genova is highlight her name w/your mouse and right click.)
If you're not a person whose job is intensely social you have to figure out another way.
All this said I am allergic to excuses. There's no excuse for defeatism. Rational recognition of obstacles - OK. But defeatism, nope.
First, I agree with you on all that. Second, I didn't know Lisa Genova, but had heard of 'Still Alice' through the film--and good for her! That's remarkable for a self-published book. Third, agree that we can't be defeatists. My first two books were published by very small presses, with little distribution. I haven't found a publisher for the third yet, but hope to. There are signs of backlash, particularly in non-fiction. I hope that platforms like this, which host plenty of real writers, can help build a genuine community of artists and thinkers. If the Big Five ignore us, we must find another way forward. Or die trying!
I predict that civilizational collapse will occur, but you're right that we will survive it. The two are not mutually exclusive. This has happened many times before: consider the collapse of the Romano-Greek civilization. In western Europe it was pretty total, and yet, eventually, a new civilization arose from it. People were not wiped off the face of the earth. The signs of the collapse of what Spengler called the Faustian civilization are unmistakable: not just population collapse, but also the crisis of self-belief in the West, the almost complete erosion of spiritual direction, the faith of many in bogus scientism and quasi-religous cults like wokeism, and perhaps above all the pathological reliance on left-brain thinking of most people, particularly our dysfunctional elites. Very little good art is being produced now, and what there is, is being ignored or censored. The green 'policies' we have are unsustainable. I can't see any way that this civilization can continue in a way we'd recognise as 'ours' beyond this century. But I trust that a new one will replace it. There are some encouraging shoots already, like those you mention in your metaphor of the quagmire of mud.
" Very little good art is being produced now, and what there is, is being ignored or censored."
Ignoring is more effective than actual censorship.
It's impossible to produce a feature length movie without money and even if you get the money major chains won't distribute you. There are ways around that (online) but that just proves the point.
Anyone can write a book and self-publish but selling books without the sponsorship of a major publisher, which will entice the big influencers (an Oprah recommendation guarantees sales) is not impossible, but it's extremely difficult. The only real example of someone who broke out of the pack *and* who writes good stuff is Lisa Genova. She's my idol. She's a Ph.D. neuroscientist who hawked her book at every convention she went to (scientists go to a lot of conventions).
(Hint: if you don't know who Lisa Genova is highlight her name w/your mouse and right click.)
If you're not a person whose job is intensely social you have to figure out another way.
All this said I am allergic to excuses. There's no excuse for defeatism. Rational recognition of obstacles - OK. But defeatism, nope.
First, I agree with you on all that. Second, I didn't know Lisa Genova, but had heard of 'Still Alice' through the film--and good for her! That's remarkable for a self-published book. Third, agree that we can't be defeatists. My first two books were published by very small presses, with little distribution. I haven't found a publisher for the third yet, but hope to. There are signs of backlash, particularly in non-fiction. I hope that platforms like this, which host plenty of real writers, can help build a genuine community of artists and thinkers. If the Big Five ignore us, we must find another way forward. Or die trying!