The Versailles MOU, II

Absolute Catastrophe

I’m often skeptical of polls, but I can’t question this.

Over 9 in 10 respondents (92%), surveyed between June 17-20, said Tehran emerged as the victor, according to The Times of Israel, and nearly 70% said President Donald Trump’s management of the war classifies as “failed” or “poor.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fared slightly better, with 56% of respondents saying his handling of the war was either a failure or poor.

Nearly all Israelis surveyed (88%) said the country did not achieve its stated goals of ending Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and bringing down the regime.

“Bringing down the regime.”

How quickly people forget. From the start of this folly, the White House consistently framed the objectives of Epic Fury around military and strategic degradation. It’s all right here in President Trump’s Clear and Unchanging Objectives Drive Decisive Success Against Iranian Regime – The White House.

Vance was purposely evasive.

“Whatever happens with the regime in one form or another, it’s incidental to the President’s primary objective here — which is to make sure the Iranian terrorist regime does not build a nuclear bomb.”

Miller was not, he was clear:

“The American military objective is to neuter the regime — to render them impotent. That is what President Trump is doing. Day by day, the regime is being rendered impotent in terms of being able to wield instruments of national power against the world… President Trump will not allow this regime — this bloodlusting regime — to hold us hostage with energy blackmail, with missile blackmail, or with nuclear blackmail.”

Nothing about regime change. Not even a hint.

Yet, from the start, there was persistent gap between the official, limited military objectives of the United States and the aspirational, regime-change-focused rhetoric coming officially from Netanyahu and, unofficially, President Trump.

Statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (February 28, 2026)

This morning, in a powerful surprise attack, we destroyed the compound of the tyrant Khamenei in the heart of Tehran. For three and a half decades, this cruel tyrant has exported terror around the world, made his people miserable, and worked tirelessly, without ceasing, on the plan to destroy Israel.

That plan is no more. And there are many signs that the tyrant himself is no more. This morning, we neutralized senior officials in the regime of the Ayatollahs, commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, and top figures in the nuclear program. We will continue; in the coming days, we will strike thousands of targets belonging to the terrorist regime. We will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to liberate themselves from the chains of tyranny.

Therefore, I turn once again to you, the citizens of Iran: Do not miss this opportunity; it is a once-in-a-generation chance. Do not sit idly by. For soon your moment will arrive, the moment when you will be called to take to the streets in your masses. To take to the streets to finish the job, to topple the regime of horrors that embitters your lives. Your suffering and sacrifice will not be in vain. The help you have prayed for, that help has arrived.

As the British would say, “what utter bollocks.” But I get ahead of myself.

Netanyahu’s messaging was relatively consistent throughout the conflict. He framed the war as a means to "create the conditions" for the Iranian people to rise up. Even after it became clear the regime had not fallen, he reframed his success around having created those potential "conditions," leaving the final act of revolution as a burden on the Iranian public.

Trump utilized a “two-track” messaging style.

Officially, the administration (via press releases and cabinet officials) maintained a rigid focus on technical military goals.

Unofficially, through Truth Social and early addresses, he actively encouraged the Iranian people to “take over” their government, creating a high-profile expectation of regime change that his own policy goals never formally encompassed.

On Friday, Trump reiterated that he wanted to “clean out everything” related to the current regime. “We don’t want someone who would rebuild over a ten-year period,” he said in an interview with NBC News.

Regime change, whatever that is supposed to look like, is probably only part of the rationale behind last week’s attacks;….

Regime change became cemented in public perception because, for the first few months, the U.S. government did little to correct the assumption, although this is pretty damn close to promising regime change:¹

I’ve saved this shameful, mortifying document in archive.ph.

The links (“Watch”) are from the “Rapid Response” X account²

When the regime didn’t crumble and the economic repercussions began to bite, the administration simply pivoted back to its original, narrowly defined military objectives, claiming they had been met—a move that effectively "forgot" or discarded the regime-change rhetoric that had been so prevalent in February and March.

By June 2026, Netanyahu claims main goals of Iran war achieved, says they never included regime change but ‘there are cracks’ in Tehran’s rule.

“We said we wanted to remove an existential danger from over us: first, the nuclear danger — and we did that. We said we wanted to remove from over us the [ballistic missile] danger — and we did that. And we said we wanted to create the conditions that would allow the Iranian people, should they wish, to remove from themselves this terror regime,” Netanyahu says.

At this point, am I permitted to say, “Jesus”?

---

Israel is now well and truly fucked.

I am not going to describe the “negotiations” in Lucerne - it’s all abundantly described on the net. I’ll simply say that over a period of nearly 30 years, during which Netanyahu has been Prime Minister for most of that period, he surrendered whatever small sliver of sovereignty the country had by inserting himself into American politics and openly favoring the Republicans. He compounded this disaster by cultivating what he thought was a close relationship with Donald Trump — relationship that proved to be fictitious.

Having burned down the relationship with the Democratic party (now rapidly being taken over by the rabid dogs of the DSA) and put all their eggs in the Trump-basket, Israel has now been turned into the reason for this war. Both parties are pushing it.

“They dragged us into it” — is the story. The ostensibly pro-Israel Andrew Fox, buys this shit and spews it out on his Substack, eagerly lapped up by thousands of also pro-Israel readers. So wrapped up in Netanyahu hate, and so dull-witted that he can’t appreciate the implications of what he’s saying, he buys this nonsense.

If Andrew Fox is Israel’s friend, show me its enemies.

I hate Netanyahu too, but blaming Epic Fury on him, claiming that he somehow “misled” Trump, is dangerous nonsense.

I’ve already made clear what I think the real deal was, here:

TLDR:

Neither Trump nor Bibi ever believed in regime change, they believed in regime collapse, followed by a prolonged civil war, which would take Iran out of the picture for the foreseeable future. When that didn’t happen, Trump forfeited (as is his wont), leaving Bibi to hold the bag of scorpions.

No sane adult looking at the situation clearly ever believed that the Iranian masses were going to “rise up” and take control of Iran. That was a fantasy for the idiots.

Israel has zero freedom of action. No matter how many Israeli pols and hasbaristas beat their chests and say, “Israel is a sovereign country” we know that it isn’t. Bibi destroyed it.

The inclusion of Lebanon reveals that the United States now treats Israel’s northern front not as an Israeli security issue but as a regional liability to be “managed.” Israel can object all it wants. The result will be total and complete isolation, as Vance so kindly reminded us.

More later.

1. This must be the first time a New York Post front page and Dave Portnoy were quoted in an official White House memo. I really can’t. I can’t even.

2. This is an official account run by the White House. I’ve heard it’s run by failson Don Trump, Jr. and neo-Nazi Alex Bruesewitz. This is one of those “you can’t prove it” things but I think it’s true — Jr. and Bruesewitz are buddies and the wording is 100% Trumpian.