Tragedy doesn’t result when people do things they shouldn’t do. It results when people do things they must do.
I’ve made myself crystal clear repeatedly: the US has an overwhelming strategic reason to contain a nuclear Iran. But that doesn’t mean that the US and Israel see eye-to-eye on how to contain Iran.
I just saw the news about Haifa and Beersheva.
I feel sick. I can’t look at the footage.
I was never euphoric about this, not for one second. But that doesn’t protect me from feeling dread and despair, and I don’t mind admitting that here. I’m not a big account leveraging influence, I’m just an observer.
Nor did I buy the happy talk about Israel having “degraded Iran’s arsenal.” “Degrading an arsenal” is comforting self-praise, not a data point. Even if Israel has destroyed half of Iran’s missile stockpile (unverified and likely inflated), what remains is mobile, hidden across a vast territory (yes, Senator Cruz, it helps to know these things), rotating inventory built for depth, redundancy, and attritional warfare.
That’s Iran’s doctrine. It’s not “use once and collapse.” It’s “bleed the enemy slowly — and when it’s time, overwhelm.”
Now, Bibi Netanyahu is not an idiot and he knows all this, so what was he thinking? If you believe this was all coordinated beforehand with the US, go ahead. I do not. I think he pulled the rug out from under Trump. Yep, I do. I think he decided to take the bull by the horns and use his golden tongue to speak directly to the American people, confident that he has a built-in constituency.
If that’s the case, he totally misjudged the electorate. As they say now, he didn’t read the room. He’s been in the Hasbara Industrial Complex too long.
Yes, the U.S. and Israel share the strategic goal of containing Iran, but their timelines and stakes are fundamentally different.
For the U.S., Iran is a long-term regional challenge—something to be managed amid larger priorities like global energy stability and great-power competition. Washington can afford to be patient, recalibrate policy, and even absorb strategic setbacks. For us, time is a tool. 1
But for Israel, Iran represents an existential threat. Every month that Iran's missile, drone, and nuclear programs advance is a direct erosion of Israeli deterrence. (Aren’t we seeing that now?) Time, for Israel, is a fuse. Its margin for error is tiny zip, and when it acts, it acts with the urgency of a nation that cannot lose once.
Israel may have gambled that by provoking Iran decisively, it could force the U.S. into full strategic commitment—no more ambiguity, no more restraint.
So far, America appears willing to resupply and support without fully entering the ring. Rational for Washington, catastrophic for Israel.
If this gamble fails—if the U.S. won't "finish the job"—then Israel faces the terrifying prospect of confronting a wounded but emboldened and enraged Iran alone, under the shadow of mounting missile strikes and a shrinking window for preemption.
This isn’t just a tactical misstep. Bibi gambled with Israel’s existence, and lost.
Tragedy isn’t when people do things they shouldn’t do. It’s when people do things they must do.
That’s why I feel sick.
What consequences this has for the American Jewish community? I’d prefer not to think about that until my worst fears either do come true, or don’t. But Alex Berenson is and (predictably) he’s being accused of excusing antisemitism. Pardon me while I vomit. Truth favors no side but its own.
I’m going away for a few days.
I pray things are better when I return and that everything I wrote here is exaggerated dark fantasy.
“But Iran will be able to nuke the US!” That’s a scare tactic and it’s not working. They would need ICBMs with miniaturized warheads and the US nuclear deterrent is overwhelming. One fantasy ICBM launched towards the US and Iran is a crater.
Yeah, I looked this up on AI. Everyone else can as well.